However, as artists it’s our job to tell the client how much time it will take to complete a project and how much they can expect to pay. But how do we predict the unpredictable?

To get more practice in this department I like to create deadlines for personal projects, regardless of whether or not there’s a need for one. I find this prevents laziness and endless test and adjustments.

My most recent project was a New York city earthquake animation. So before I started the project I wrote down a list of everything I would need to model:

• A bedroom (chairs, desk, bed, bookshelf)
• Detailed building (multiple floors, smashed windows, broken walls)
• A camera mapped city
• Smoke
• Falling debris

I didn’t have the luxury of working on this full time, so I estimated the project would take 3 weeks to complete.

And how long did it really take?

3 months.

Where did I go wrong? The biggest problem was failing to predict certain issues.

Here’s a list of the most time consuming tasks that completely skipped the planning stage:

1. Learning Time

I had never modeled a destroyed anything before, so it goes without saying that I would need to learn a few things. Learning takes time, a lot of time. When you don’t know how to do something your entire production grinds to halt whilst you stumble around the internet trying desperately to find an answer.

2. Software Issues

I was using Blender 2.5 Alpha. That last word there should have been a neon flashing billboard that spelled TROUBLE. However, this completely overlooked this fact. As a result, I had to deal with dozens and dozens of unpredictable bugs. The most noteworthy bug was a ‘segmentation fault’ that caused the software to crash during rendering. I spent over a week trying to find an answer. The worst part is, I never got one. It was in Alpha stage. Nobody knew.

3. Over-estimating my skill

Everyone knows how fast they work. Or at least they should. But when I was estimating on how long certain tasks would take, I severely overestimated my skill. Tasks such as modeling the inside of the bedroom took a mere day in my head, but when I sat down and actually started working on it I realized a week was more realistic.

4. Video production

Model, Texture, Light, Render = Finished! Right? No. There’s also, re-rendering problematic frames, compositing passes, buying sound effects, exporting in various formats for different media, uploading and distributing. They are all crucial tasks, but they never entered the planning stage.

5. Being a perfectionist

After I spent a week detailing rooms of the building that the audience would only see for a split second, I realized that I was being a little OCD. Every artist wants their work to be perfect. After all, that’s what makes great art. However, there comes a point when you need to step away from the computer and and accept that it’s not perfect, but it will pass.

The project was an enormous learning experience for me. It made me wonder:  Is determining a realistic deadline a skill that can be taught? Or is it something that only comes with experience?

At completion I jokingly thought that perhaps in the future I should just triple my original estimate. But on a second thought, maybe that’s even such a bad idea?

I put the question to my twitter followers and facebook fans. Here were their suggestions for determining a realistic deadlines:

@r3dp_01: I breakdown the layers of the project, 3d , matchmove etc. then the level of the artist(s)

@francoisgfx: The first thing they teach me when I started at Ubisoft: Always triple what you think :)

@DarkCellar: Complexity, team size, commitment, experience, skillset.

@OscarMopperkont: Realistic planning.

@Laxy: I work out roughly how long it’ll take then double it. But that’s me dealing with my optimistic calculations :D

Renato Sousa: Multiply by two…

Brian Knezevich: By figuring out how the project is coming along. Of course you determine it by the time and the work you all ready have done.

Mark Walder: Depends on the desired outcome, Time, detail, texturing lighting, placement and strength of lighting, HDRI background as part of that lighting and Ambient effects, In my experience it is hard to follow real world lighting so to keep rendering and adjusting has been the key for me, and that can make determining a deadline difficult at times.

So how do you create realistic deadlines? What methods have you found that work for you? Share your experiences and lessons learned in the comments below!

It’s the tale of the boy who cried wolf all over again. And much like the angry village people we’re getting a little tired of running up hills with pitchforks, only to find that the wolf was photoshopped. Now even genuine photos don’t cut it. When I posted the following photos on blenderartists.org there were a mixed bag of opinions:

“I don’t believe that they are real”
“I smell cynics.”
“It just looks like a copy and paste with some slight changes.”

Let me start by saying that I do not claim to have taken these photos or know the photographer that did, but according to his blog, they are 100% real:

Chalk it up to the bird’s eye view or too many Sim City sessions, but there’s no denying this town’s distinct lack of imagination. If you still aren’t convinced, some cynics from another forum have dug up some satellite imagery, which proves… nothing really, but it makes it look plausable at least:

Do you believe me yet?

The same photographer has also posted these fishy pieces of work:

Central de Abasto - The largest most repetative foodmarket in the world.

Not bad. Fog looks a bit painted and the trees could use some work, but a good effort overall.

(source)

At a first glance these next photos look like someone on a forum requested ‘wires’ and the OP obliged, but this time they’re real:

This real life wireframe of a subaru was sculpted by artist Benedict Radcliffe for a gallery in Mayfair, which he obviously enjoyed, because 9 months later he did a Lamborghini Countach:

And the last photo I’ll leave you with is from Venice (or Crysis, you be the judge):
(source)

So what’s your verdict? Are they genuine or not?